NFL 2010 - Week 11 picks.....

The bye weeks are done and all teams have now played the same amount of games as we start the seven week home stretch. It is impossible to name a top team this year without finding flaws that make you question the selection. New England whips Pittsburgh after looking bad in losing to Cleveland. Dallas fires its coach, then goes into New York, knocks them around and looks like the team with thought they would be at the start of the season. Now we have Philadelphia looking like the kings of the NFL. Guess we will see.

As for the picks, I also did the impossible by being 3 games better against the spread than in straight picking of the winner. Hard to do.

Below the point spread games are the win/lose picks of Mike, myself and our guest picker and podcast listener, Casey.

NFL Week 11 picks (Home Team in CAPS)

DOLPHINS (-1 1/2) over Bears - Short week with a new starting quarterback does not look good for Miami, but they didn't have to travel so they have a slight advantage. The key will be if the Dolphin defense can put pressure on Jay Cutler to cause turnovers.
BENGALS (-4 1/2) over Bills - Buffalo finally got their first victory last week and look for two in a row against a reeling Cincinnati team. At home I expect the Bengals to show a little pride in their season and get a much needed victory.
COWBOYS (-7) over Lions - The only team without a home win this season resides in Dallas, but that will change this week as the Cowboys keep up the good play for new coach Jason Garrett and go into their Thanksgiving game on a little winning streak.
TITANS (-6 1/2) over Redskins - Washington seems to be a mess and were embarrassed last week by Michael Vick and now they get Chris Johnson and Randy Moss. Tennessee has two beat up quarterbacks, but whoever is back there needs to find Moss to help stretch the defense for Johnson.
Cardinals (+7 1/2) over CHIEFS Kansas City loses a tough one to the Raiders then gets blown out by Denver. They look to get back to the friendly confines of Arrowhead and back in the win column. Chiefs win, but the Cardinals give them a scare.
Packers (-2 1/2) over VIKINGS - A part of me wants to give Minnesota one more shot to gather themselves, but they get a Green Bay team coming off the bye and starting to get healthy. The Packers take advantage of the rest and help bury the Vikings for the season.
JETS (-5) over Texans - Houston's defense has been one of the worst in the league and their offense has not been as productive as prior years. New York has been sluggish the past 4 games, but will get healthy this week at home against the struggling Texans.
Raiders (+9) over STEELERS - Oakland has been a pleasant surprise and have been doing it behind the running of Darren McFadden. That will be tough against the Steeler running defense. Pittsburgh is coming off getting whipped by New England and will bounce back,but the Raiders will keep it close.
Ravens (-10) over PANTHERS - Carolina is down to their 3rd string quarterback against a Baltimore defense that can get after their opponents. The Ravens were stung in losing late last week to Atlanta, but had ten days off since then to get right. Expect a big game from Ray Rice.
Browns (+3) over JAGUARS - Cleveland loses a heartbreaker to the Jets, while Jacksonville wins on a deflected "Hail Mary". Have been very impressed by Colt McCoy managing of the Brown offense. The Browns have been playing tough and will take advantage of the Jaguars poor running defense with the big armed Peyton Hillis.
Falcons (-3) over RAMS - I so wanted to back St. Louis here, but I just couldn't pull the trigger. Again, the ten day layoff that Atlanta received is a plus this late in the season that they will take advantage of against the Rams.
SAINTS (-12 1/2) over Seahawks - The defending champions are "under the radar" sitting a game behind Atlanta in the NFC South. They are also coming off their bye week, getting Reggie Bush back and just getting healthy in general. Seattle has been poor on the road and it won't get any better against the rested Saints in the Superdome.
Buccaneers (+4) over 49ERS - I have been very late getting on Tampa Bay, while holding on to San Francisco. That gets reversed this week as I think the Buccaneers are playing well enough to go cross country and keep up this surprising season. The Bucs defense will be the reason they keep it close and could get the win.
PATRIOTS (-3) over Colts - Not a fan of giving points to Peyton Manning, even in New England, but the Colts are still beat up and will have a tough time against Tom Brady and the Patriots. New England rides their offensive success from last week at Pittsburgh to outscore Manning and the Colts.
EAGLES (-3) over Giants - Don't like be a "prisoner of the moment", but last week's results have to give you pause. While I think the Giants are not as bad as they looked or the Eagles as good, Philadelphia will ride momentum and the home field advantage to move to the top of the NFC East standings. Key for Michael Vick will be to avoid the big hitters on the Giant defense.
Broncos (+9 1/2) over CHARGERS - Are we seeing another San Diego late season surge in the making? Sure looks that way and they are being led by MVP candidate, Philip Rivers. The Charger offense is still without Antonio Gates, but will be getting Malcom Floyd back for the game and Vincent Jackson returns next week. Denver can score points and will score enough to keep this close, but the Chargers get the home win.

Week 10 picks: 9-5
2010 season: 72-63-9


Win / Lose picks:
Guest picker for week 11: podcast listener, Casey

Week 10 results: Mike (7-7) / Sal (6-8) / Guest (6-8)
2010 season: Mike (89-55) / Sal (84-60) / Guest (73-71)

Week 11 picks:
--- Bears at Dolphins --- Sal / Mike / Casey
--- Bills at Bengals --- Sal / Mike / Casey
--- Lions at Cowboys --- Sal / Mike / Casey
--- Redskins at Titans --- Sal / Mike / Casey
--- Cardinals at Chiefs --- Sal / Mike / Casey
Sal / Casey --- Packers at Vikings --- Mike
Mike / Casey --- Texans at Jets --- Sal
--- Raiders at Steelers --- Sal / Mike / Casey
Sal / Mike / Casey --- Ravens at Panthers ---
Sal / Mike / Casey --- Browns at Jaguars ---
Sal / Mike / Casey --- Falcons at Rams ---
--- Seahawks at Saints --- Sal / Mike / Casey
Sal --- Buccaneers at 49ers --- Mike / Casey
Mike --- Colts at Patriots --- Sal / Casey
--- Giants at Eagles --- Sal / Mike / Casey
Casey --- Broncos at Chargers --- Sal / Mike