NFL 2010 - Week 4 picks.....

Three weeks are done and we have three surprising teams at 3-0. Teams that needed wins (Dallas and Minnesota) got them and now a bye week to get their teams in order, while one (San Francisco) took a tough loss and doesn't see its path getting easier with a cross country trip to Atlanta on tap. As for the picks, week three was a hard week on my picking record and my ego.

Below the point spread games are the win/lose picks of Mike, myself and our guest picker, Cassie (my daughter who better not show up daddy).

NFL Week 4 picks (Home Team in Caps)
Bye Week: Buccaneers, Chiefs, Cowboys, Vikings

49ers (+6 1/2) over FALCONS
Atlanta got a huge win against the Saints last week on the road and now they gets a struggling San Francisco team who looks like the team we expected coming into the season. While I think the Falcons win this game, I think there will be a bit of a letdown from last week and they allow the 49ers to keep it close before pulling out the victory.

Jets (-4 1/2) over BILLS
This seems like a small number for two teams on opposite ends of the NFL "good scale". Jets will be without Darrelle Revis again this week, but it will not matter against the anemic Bills' offense. Expect a big day from LaDainian Tomlinson as New York pounds the ball against the Buffalo defense.

Bengals (+3) over BROWNS
The Bengal offense has been terrible and you have to wonder if it is all on Carson Palmer's shoulders? This week will be the test as the Cincinnati offense should be able to move the ball against a Browns team that gave up three TD passes through the air last week. Bengals' offense does get on track and they roll Cleveland.

PACKERS (-14 1/2) over Lions
This is a huge number, but the Packers gave Monday night's game to the Bears with multiple penalties and mental breakdowns and they take out their anger on the Lions' defense. Long day for Detroit at Lambeau Field as Aaron Rodgers leads a Packer team that knows they let one slip away against the Bears.

Broncos (+8 1/2) over TITANS
The Denver offense has been moving the ball well through the air, but need to put more points on the board. Tennessee has not looked great the last two weeks, despite the win against the Giants, and this game is close until the Titans pull off the victory late in the fourth quarter.

Seahawks (-1 1/2) over RAMS
There is a part of me that wants to give more love to the Rams after their first victory last week, but I just can't pull the trigger on them unless Steven Jackson is 100% healthy. Seattle needed two kickoff returns to beat the Chargers, but they were tough when needed in keeping the San Diego offense out of the end zone. Seahawks have enough to get the win and take early control of the bad NFC West.

SAINTS (-13) over Panthers
Carolina is a mess and Jimmy Clausen will have to learn on the job. That lesson will be tough against an opportunistic Saints defense. The New Orleans defense was exposed the last two weeks with both the 49ers and Falcons running against them, but because they won't be afraid of Clausen, they will stack the line and stuff DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Drew Brees has a big game and the Saints get back into the win column.

Ravens (+3) over STEELERS
Pittsburgh is playing with "house money" as they sit at 3-0 coming into the last game of the Ben Roethlisberger suspension. The Steeler defense has been great, but the Raven offense is better than any of the first three Pittsburgh has faced and they will put up enough points to get a tough divisional victory on the road.

Texans (-2) over RAIDERS
Houston looked like the Dallas team they were facing last week as they made mistakes that cost them chances and possibly the victory on Sunday. The Raiders suffered a tough loss in Arizona when the game winning field goal was pushed left by Sebastian Janikowski. Oakland has been running the ball well with Darren McFadden and will try to shorten the game against an explosive Texan offense. Some concern over Andre Johnson's ankle, but the Texans have too much for the Raiders.

Colts (-7) over JAGUARS
Jacksonville has been a turnover machine the last two weeks and having Peyton Manning and the Colts coming in will not make things easier for them as a shootout is not how the Jaguars want to play the game. Colts defense came up big when Denver threatened them last week and will step up to frustrate David Garrard and the Jag offense.

Redskins (+6 1/2) over EAGLES
Donovan McNabb returns to Philadelphia and it will be interesting to see how the Philly fans greet him. Washington did not look good in losing to the Rams, while the Eagles are riding Michael Vick sparking the offense, but it should be tempered a little as it has been the Jags and Lions the past two weeks. Eagles win, but the Redskins keep it close.

CHARGERS (-8) over Cardinals
The "slow start" curse has again hit the Chargers after their loss up in Seattle. Ryan Mathews should be back this week which will help San Diego balance their offense. The Cardinals ran the ball more with the return of Beanie Wells to help Tim Hightower and will probably try it against a suspect Charger running defense. Look for Philip Rivers and the offense to get the ball into the endzone more and get back to even for the season.

Bears (+3) over GIANTS
Does this Chicago team have the look of the 2006 team? A defense that is good and takes advantages of their opponents mistakes, while the offense does enough to put up the points to get victories. This Giant team is the perfect foe for them as they have been terrible protecting the ball and have self-destructed the past two weeks. New York needs to get back on track, but it may not happen against a Bear team still riding their early season success.

DOLPHINS (Even) over Patriots
Miami hurt themselves with a few defensive breakdowns against the Jets, especially against Dustin Keller and on third downs. Not a good combination against a Tom Brady led offense his passing weapons. On the flip side, the Dolphin offense moved the ball very well against the New York defense and the New England defense is nowhere nearly as good. Look for another big game from Brandon Marshall as the Dolphins take advantage against the young Patriot secondary.

Week 3 picks: 7-9
2010 season: 24-21-3

Win/Lose picks:
Guest picker for week 4: Cassie (my daughter)

Week 3 results: Mike (9-7) / Sal (8-8) / Guest (7-9)
2010 season: Mike (32-16) / Sal (30-18) / Guest (25-23)

Week 4 picks:
--- 49ers at Falcons --- Sal / Mike / Cassie
Sal / Mike / Cassie --- Jets at Bills ---
Sal / Mike / Cassie --- Bengals at Browns ---
--- Lions at Packers --- Sal / Mike / Cassie
Sal / Cassie --- Broncos at Titans --- Mike
Sal / Mike / Cassie --- Seahawks at Rams ---
--- Panthers at Saints --- Sal / Mike / Cassie
Sal --- Ravens at Steelers --- Mike / Cassie
Sal / Mike --- Texans at Raiders --- Cassie
Sal / Mike / Cassie --- Colts at Jaguars ---
Sal --- Redskins at Eagles --- Mike / Cassie
Cassie --- Cardinals at Chargers --- Sal / Mike
Sal / Mike --- Bears at Giants --- Cassie
--- Patriots at Dolphins --- Sal / Mike / Cassie