Thursday, October 6, 2011

NFL 2011 - Week 5 picks.....

So what have we learned after 4 weeks of the NFL season? We know the offenses are good. Real good. But at the end of the day, it will be defense that separates the good from the great teams. The Lions and Packers are the only undefeated teams, while the Colts, Dolphins, Vikings and Rams still have not won yet this year. Think about that for a minute. We have the Lions undefeated, while the Colts are winless. It is bizarro world.

Second losing week in a row puts us close to the breakeven level for the year. It is the start of the "bye weeks", so we have an abbreviated schedule.

NFL 2011 - Week 5 picks (Home team in CAPS)

Eagles (-2 1/2) over BILLS - Everything points towards the Bills keeping the misery going in Philadelphia, but I think the Eagles win a shootout to get back on the winning track. Last week's loss to the 49ers might have been the wake-up call Philadelphia needed, while the Bills suffered their first loss in Cincinnati. Nice running back match-up with LeSean McCoy and Fred Jackson.
Bengals (+2 1/2) over JAGUARS - Battle of the rookie QBs in Blaine Gabbert and Andy Dalton. Which one makes the least mistakes to win the game. Cincinnati is playing better defense than Jacksonville and it will help lead them to the road victory over the Jags.
Titans (+7 1/2) over STEELERS - Seattle didn't want Matt Hasselbeck for what reason? Who had the Titans at 3-1, while being last in rushing offense? This would be a statement win for Tennessee. I think the Steelers win, but it is a real scrap.
COLTS (-2 1/2) over Chiefs - Only because the game is in Indy. The Chiefs have looked a little better the past couple of weeks, but the Colts have too many vets and will get on the winning side of the ledger for the first time in 2011.
Raiders (+6 1/2) over TEXANS - No Andre Johnson for the Texans and Darrin McFadden's running for Oakland, means a very close game. Overall Houston is the better team and must win these type of games at home to be considered a post season threat. Arian Foster should get plenty of carries to offset the lessened passing game for the Texans.
VIKINGS (-2 1/2) over Cardinals - Beanie Wells running well for the Cardinals, but the other running back in the game is the best in the league. When are the Vikings just going to keep giving the ball to AP and just see what happens? Maybe this week so they can finally get that goose egg out of the win column.
Saints (-5 1/2) over PANTHERS - I've been seeing one as the "upset special" of the week and I just don't see it. Yes, the Panthers have been better this year, but that Saint offense can put up 35 points almost every game and will do so against Carolina.
GIANTS (-9 1/2) over Seahawks - Everything says this is a letdown game for New York after they snuck out of the dessert last week with the win. I just love their defensive line up against the Seattle offense, plus quietly Eli Manning is doing a very good job this year with a depleted receiving group.
Buccaneers (+1 1/2) over 49ERS - I did not see both of these teams at 3-1 after the first quarter of the season. Neither will blow an opponent out and use their running games led by LeGarrette Blount and Frank Gore to control clock. In the end, Josh Freeman just seems to get wins and I have more confidence in him than Alex Smith.
Chargers (-4 1/2) over BRONCOS - This should be a no-brainer with the small spread, but San Diego always seem to be in close games against lesser opponents. Rivers may have no Gates or Jackson this week, but in the end, if the Chargers want to be considered "elite" in the AFC they must win big against a poor Bronco team.
Jets (+9 1/2) over PATRIOTS - I have not like this Jet team all year, but Rex Ryan will have them up for their rivals in New England. Normally I would expect Brady & Belichick to get revenge for last year's playoff loss and blowout New York, but the Patriot defense is so poor, it will be a close score at the end.
Packers (-5 1/2) over FALCONS - Atlanta escapes Seattle last week and have many questioning what is going on with this team picked by many to challenge for the NFC crown. Does not get any easier with Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense coming to town. Green Bay remains undefeated and repeats last year's playoff beatdown.
LIONS (-5 1/2) over Bears - I keep on wanting to go against Detroit, but it will not be this week. Poor Chicago and Jay Cutler get to deal with a raucous crowd excited for a Monday Night game, which will make the Lion pass rush that much quicker and better. It could get ugly for Cutler and the Chicago offensive line.

Week 4: 7-9
2011 season: 33-30-1

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