Friday, January 21, 2011

AFC & NFC Championship Game picks.....

Two great matchups for getting to play in Super Bowl 45. The Jets have to travel to Pittsburgh in a week 16 rematch, while in Chicago, division rivals play their "rubber match" for the season when the Packers play the Bears.

As for my Divisional round picks, I was 4-0 against the spread, but only 3-1 straight up with my only loss being the Jets upset of the Patriots.

Championship Games:

Packers (-3) over BEARS
I had the Packers in the Super Bowl before the season and I am not going to get off them now. I have not believed in the Bears all year, but they have grown on me as the season has gone forward. Mike Martz really made the correct adjustments in giving the ball to Matt Forte more in the running game and Mike Tice getting the offensive line to play much better in protecting Jay Cutler. On the defensive side of the ball, they have been solid all season and showed that they made the smart off-season move in getting Julius Peppers to help make their defensive line a force, which made their overall defense much better. That said, the Packers have also gotten better as the season has moved forward as they have overcome a large amount of injuries to important pieces on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Aaron Rodgers is playing great and the defense, which was ranked #2 this season in the NFL, is making plays at the right times with different players making those important plays. This is not a great matchup for the Packer offense as the Bears' Cover 2 scheme has given them trouble in their two meeting this year. The Packers will need to get some production from their running game and I think they will, while on the defensive side of the ball they make a play against Jay Cutler, either with sacks or an interception, that turns the tide in Green Bay's favor.
Packers 17
Bears 12

STEELERS (-3) over Jets
The Jets come into this matchup as high as possible after knocking off Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in back to back weeks, and now they look to take down their third straight Super Bowl winning quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger. Unlike the previous two games, stopping Roethlisberger will not be their top priority. It will be helping their quarterback, Mark Sanchez, be comfortable enough to put up points against this very good Steeler defense. That will mean running the ball against the #1 ranked run defense and #1 overall defense and while they did break the 100 yard barrier in their week 16 matchup, that same result is not likely here in the AFC Championship game. This game should be a little different for the Steelers with Troy Polamalu roaming the Steeler secondary, which will help their run defense and put the Jets in more third and long situations. Then on the offensive side of the ball, tight end Heath Miller will be in the lineup and was missed by Pittsburgh in the first meeting. The Steelers will have to try and not allow another big special teams play by the Jets kickoff returners like they did on the opening kickoff in their first meeting. On the offensive side, the Steeler offense was moving the ball well against the Jet defense and had two shots to win the game inside the 10 yard line in the final seconds. Not sure what the Jets will do differently this time to hold the Steeler offense at bay. In the end, it will be the Steeler defense harassing Mark Sanchez (like the Ravens and Packers both did during the season) and Roethlisberger making enough plays on offense which willmove the Steelers to Super Bowl 45 and their attempt at a 7th ring.
Steelers 22
Jets 13

Divisional weekend record: 4-0
2010 Playoffs: 7-1


Win/Loss picks:
Divisional weekend: Sal (3-1) / Mike (3-1)
2010 Playoffs: Sal (5-3) / Mike (6-2)

Sal / Mike --- Packers at Bears ---
--- Jets at Steelers --- Sal / Mike

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